2016-17 Premier League predictions

With another season of top flight English football comes another set of Premier League predictions. After Leicester’s surprise title win last season (I predicted them to be relegated in my predictions a year ago), its fair to say that the Premier League might be quite difficult to predict.

Title winners

As each  new season rolls around the “it’s the closest season ever” cliche is brought out. After the Foxes title win last season every team will have title belief, but Leicester’s success will probably be a one off. Instead, I think that the title will be going to one of English football’s most successful clubs. With one of European football’s most successful managers on board, as well as one of the 21st century’s most prolific strikers and the world’s most expensive player, I don’t think there’s much that can stop Manchester United. Obviously jumping from a 5th place finish to the title is quite a leap, but Mourinho’s new look United team finally have the world class quality to do this.

Champions League qualification

With United my champions this year, the rest of my top four look relatively familiar.  I think Guardiola’s Manchester City will challenge United for the title, but will just fall short. For a serial winner like Guardiola finishing second or third is failure, but he’ll need time to adapt to the rigors of the Premier League. City’s defensive frailties will also cost them this season, although arguably no team in the Premier League are secure in that department. I think Arsenal will also achieve another season of Champions League football, but again a lack of transfer activity this summer will cost them when it comes to the title race. With no top level striker or central defender added to Arsene Wenger’s side (at the time of writing at least) I can’t see a way for them to challenge City or United successfully for the title. The final Champions League place is going to be a tough race, but I think Conte’s Chelsea will pip Liverpool and Spurs. None of these three teams have really strengthened enough to make a title challenge, and Chelsea have the best squad of the three. The presence of Champions League football again for Spurs after so long will probably dampen their chances of qualifying for it again.

How will last season’s champions fare?

Leicester have their name written in the history books, engraved on the Premier League trophy and seared into the memories of millions of fans around the world after their exceptional performance last season. However, despite their success I think that winning or even challenging for the title again might be a little bit beyond them. Champions League football will be a huge distraction for them and losing Kante, and potentially Mahrez, will be a big blow. I don’t think that they’ll struggle at the wrong end of the table, and they might challenge for a European place, but a mid table finish is what I think beckons for last season’s champions.

Relegation candidates

I think that the promoted teams will all definitely struggle this season. Burnley and Hull really haven’t strengthened enough to stay up and neither already had enough Premier League quality in their squad. Middlesbrough have bought well, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep them up. QPR have shown in the past that buying a team of big names as a newly promoted side doesn’t always work. Sunderland and Watford will be down there as well as neither have really strengthened to well. David Moyes is a good choice as Sunderland manager, a chance for him to resurrect his badly damaged reputation, but Walter Mazzari might not be the best choice from the Pozzi family at Watford. Also, if Swansea continue to lose top players like Williams and Gomis they might be down there as well. 

Top scorer

Although I don’t think that City will win the title they have the best striker in the league in Sergio Aguero, so if he stays fit then he will probably be top scorer. With the amount of creative talent behind him Aguero should be getting chances galore. This is what I think is the biggest difference between the amount of goals that Aguero and Ibrahimovic could get; Aguero has far better creative players behind him, although as Ibra has shown he doesn’t always need the best creative players behind him, he’s a match winner in his own right. I think that Kane will also be up there again and Ibrahimovic might score quite a few as well. 

Player of the season

Another difficult category to predict, as it really depends on who wins the title. I think that if he stays at United, De Gea could definitely be in the running for it should they win the title. Goalkeepers rarely get the credit that they deserve, and if United (or Arsenal or Chelsea, for that matter as in Cech and Courtios both also have top class goalkeepers) win the title then that in be in no small part down to the goalkeeping exploits of David De Gea. Kevin De Bruyne might also be up there if he can stay fit this season. 

Surprise package

Their seemingly constant Premier League success since their promotion means that any success they do have is no longer a surprise, but even with a change of manager and European football I think Southampton might do quite well. Whether this is solely repeating their European challenges of seasons gone by or a cup run I don’t know, but in Claude Puel they have another manager that perfectly fits the Southampton mould. Last season, Puel’s Nice said played some very good football and although not always highly successful, the reincarnation of Hatem Ben Arfa was a success in itself. If Puel can repeated that this season with Southampton then they will eat least be the league’s most entertaining team. Alan Pardew’s Crystal Palace have also made some good signings and I expect them to do a lot better than they did last season. 

Signing of the summer

Obviously this decision could change as the transfer window progresses, but at the moment there are one or two players that look like inspired decisions by their new managers. Free transfers Sofiane Ferghouli for West Ham and Zlatan Ibrahimovic for United will both be inspired signings merely for the price tag they were bought for. New Southampton singing Hojberg could also have a huge impact on the Premier League, a brilliant signing for the Saints of a player who has so much potential. Also, the managerial signings of Mourinho and Guardiola by the Manchester clubs were great decisions, although Mourinho will probably settle back into life in the Premier League quicker. 

Promtion from the Championship

Despite the fact that they lost on the first day of the season, Newcastle by far have the best team and manager in the division and they’ll go up because of this. I think that under Nigel Pearson Derby will also do quite well, at least a play off place but hopefully an automatic promotion place. Norwich will also mount a challenge as they look to bounce back up, but I don’t think that they’ll go up. Wolves might challenge as well.